Whither Macedonia?
Attempting to follow the on-going scandal in Macedonia these days is like trying to drink water from a fire hose: an enormously difficult task. But I believe we can get some larger-picture take-aways from this. Here goes:
■This scandal adds to something that began even before the ink on the so-called “Prespa agreement” was written and that is that among the Macedonians, the reputations of the EU, NATO, and the US have been severely damaged, along with the very institutions of democracy and the very concept of democracy. The way in which the Zaev Government was put into power, coupled with the ramming through of the agreement (the famous “Balkan approach” of EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn), and now this scandal, all point to the fact that the hallmarks of liberal democracy such as the rule of law, the consent of the governed, and even a free and independent media have been shattered. When one employs various approaches of brute force coupled with social engineering in effecting regime change, the law of unintended consequences kicks in.
■This growing scandal will bring down the Government of Zoran Zaev. The question is, when and who else will be implicated in it. There will be more revelations as August glides into September with more people in the government implicated and more government officials trying to deny it all, pointing fingers at each other, or just running away. In all of this I would very much like to see Ali Ahmeti and his DUI finally obliterated. He and his operation are nothing but criminals and murderers, borne out of an organization that attempted to split Macedonia in two.
■One of the crown jewels of the Western elite’s plan for Macedonia, the Special Prosecutors Office (SPO) and all of the special prosecutors, are now suspect. All of the SPO cases to date (those that are on-going, those that have been decided, etc.) are now subject to possible re-adjudication. The credibility of the SPO is of course shattered likely beyond repair.
■This scandal and all that it bequeaths to Macedonia will be a very good excuse for the EU to say “no” to opening up accession talks with Macedonia this October. Several countries are already wary of opening up those talks and some have said an outright “no” to the inclusion of Albania which desires to be coupled with Macedonia. Because of the “no” on Albania, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama is threatening, in his various thinly-veiled ways, the region and the EU if Albania does not get the green light to start those talks with Macedonia (the specter of “Greater Albania” are his usual go-to threats). The Macedonian scandal will therefore give those skeptical countries a perfect excuse to say “no” to both countries.
■At the same time the EU and the US are demanding that the country pass a new law by the end of the September on the special prosecutor. No new law equals no opening of accession talks. Despite this scandal, the EU and the US will continue putting enormous pressure on the opposition to agree to whatever the Government of Zoran Zaev comes up with, the sovereignty of Macedonia be damned.
■NATO membership will likely not be affected by this. NATO is not terribly interested in the internal corruption and scandals of any of its member, or potential, member states (See: Đukanović, Milo). Again, the issue for NATO was not the corruption, alleged or real, under the previous government, it was the fact that Greece would not allow Macedonia into NATO because of Macedonia’s chosen name. Therefore NATO needed a compliant and willing quisling in Macedonia that would change the name. That the Zaev Government has turned out to be incompetently corrupt is beside the point.
■The ruling party of Macedonia, Zoran Zaev’s SDSM, will suffer continued fracturing. There are at least two dominant wings in the party and the rift between them will grow especially as more members are caught up in this scandal. Expect the finger-pointing, accusations, and counter-accusations to continue and grow. This will fuel the scandal as well as calls for new elections.
■Finally, on the issue of Macedonia’s name, identity and dignity — the reason we are here. It is vital to remember that the Western elites engineered and installed the Government of Zoran Zaev for the express purpose of engineering a name change to placate Greece and get Macedonia into NATO and the EU. They knew that Zaev and his people were corrupt though they probably did not realize to what extent they were corrupt nor did they think the corruption would be exposed this early in the Zaev Government’s tenure, threatening their project. We now have a change of Macedonia’s name, identity and everything else that goes with it, no membership in NATO (as of yet), a date for opening EU accession talks ever further in the distance (if at all), and a corrupt, bankrupt government that is not delivering what it promised — jobs, a better life, rule of law, and hope.
■So, where does this now leave us? I have three thoughts: First, the US/NATO wing of the Western elites wanted Zaev in power to change the name to get Macedonia into NATO. They don’t care much for or about the EU (for a variety of reasons too complicated to explain here) and so their work is essentially done. Once Macedonia is safely in the embrace of NATO, they will not care (too much) if Macedonia disregards the so-called “Prespa agreement” and begins working, incrementally, to change the name back. Second, elections are needed as soon as possible. The Zaev Government has failed and it is time to allow the Macedonian people to make their pronouncement on all that he has done, or has failed to do. Third, whoever wins those new elections must embark on a path of incrementally returning Macedonia’s rightful name to Macedonia (and everything that goes with it), as well as — and this is vital — coming up with a plan to create those jobs, that better life, true rule of law, and much more — without being in the EU. Yes, folks, there are alternatives, no matter how much Zaev and the Western elites say there are not. But it will take ingenuity, courage, and raw determination to achieve these things. I, for one, believe that there are Macedonians who have these characteristics and abilities.
