A moment in time
Some thoughts on the recent parliamentarian elections in Macedonia, after some reflection, and of course, mastika.
First, 401 Macedonians are now dead because of the coronavirus and the Government’s response to it. A day after the elections, another eight Macedonians passed away bringing Macedonia to that total. And a day after the elections, Zoran Zaev may just have another chance to continue governing Macedonia.
Second, “The elections were conducted under a legal framework which was substantially amended on the eve of the announcement of the elections, contrary to international good practice,” according to the preliminary report of the OSCE. Combined with the usual complaints of fraud, the hot mess faced by the State Election Commission through their website breakdown, etc., these elections will appear to the voters to lack legitimacy. But that will not stop the various EU, NATO, and Western Embassy officials from heaping praise, love, and much else on Zoran Zaev and his Government.
Third, Ali Ahmeti, who would be an abject failure if he had to work in the private sector instead of his career as a guerilla warlord and now party boss, made a cringe-worthy boast the day after the elections stating, “There will be grand negotiations. Grand negotiations. Mala Recica (the village near Tetovo where DUI has its party HQ) will be known around the region. Like it was four years ago. Like the United Nations.”
We’ll see. The leaders of the ethnic Albanian parties in Macedonia all hate each other, at least publicly. They all bang on their chests and make loud boasts thinking they are big men when in reality they are very small, and ultimately have no chests. And they can’t even deliver what is needed most to their constituency — jobs.
Fourth, we actually don’t know what the final results are, as of this writing, but I predict that President Stevo Pendarovski will give Zoran Zaev the mandate to form the next government. But given the fractiousness of the ethnic Albanian parties, the fact that Zaev’s party, SDS, the Socialists, campaigned in coalition with the ethnic-Albanian Besa party and the fact that they will need one or two more parties to get to 61 seats, all this means that a) it will be difficult to do that, b) they might form a government with the other Albanian parties but it will be short-lived, and/or c) to do all of this, Zaev will agree to anything — anything — the ethnic Albanian parties demand, up to and including Ahmeti’s demand for an ethnic Albanian prime minister. After all, Zaev promised he would not change Macedonia’s constitution — until he did. Of course Zaev might be pushed by the transnational Western elites to then push VMRO-DPMNE to join a “grand coalition” government. But this is fraught with problems which I’ll get into in my next column.
Fifth, where does VMRO-DPMNE go from here? The party obviously made gains and had wins, and even, once again, beat SDS, when you remove their little Besa partners. But, as I noted above, I do not think they will be given the mandate to form a new government. Which will lead to some reflection in the party going forward. Whatever happens, the party will continue as it is the inheritor and guarantor of Macedonia’s rich history and heritage, going back to the battles of old.
Sixth, and moving slightly afar from the Macedonian elections yesterday but still of great interest to Macedonia, the European Union will continue to exist. But, to paraphrase Voltaire, it will be neither “European” nor a “Union.” As the 2015 “refugees” in the EU grow and have families and bring their other family members in; as the EU accepts the various countries of the Balkan Peninsula; as the EU itself goes from crisis to crisis, squabbling amongst themselves while attempting to wrest power away from the individual parliaments of the sovereign nation-states that make up the EU, the EU will grow increasing tired, fractious, and, of course, far less European. But then the transnational elites that make up the leadership of the EU and many of the individual governments don’t see themselves as having an identity other than “global citizen,” so perhaps it is best that way. Macedonia, you get to join this group some day.
Seventh, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, which, in adopting members from the Mediterranean region is really not “North” nor “Atlantic,” will continue to operate under a treaty and have some form of organization, but as the EU continues to agitate for its own army; as Americans continue to tire of providing security to EU citizens (over 70 years now), allowing Europeans to continue with their generous welfare state taking six weeks of vacation a year while Americans can barely eek out five days a year; as NATO continues its existential crisis looking for its raison d’être, NATO itself will grow increasing old, weary, and corrupt. On the plus side, it has a spiffy new headquarters.
Eighth, all treaties and agreements are worth the paper they are written on. Always have been, always will be and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The important part is your will. Whatever happens to Macedonia these next few weeks, months, or years, eventually, the harm that has been done to Macedonia through the violence of Zoran Zaev and his junior partner, Ali Ahmeti, will be undone, to include those treaties.
Which leads me to my final thought: this is a moment in time; this is not the end or the beginning of anything.
Macedonians have faced much worse before.
Macedonians have also overcome greater obstacles before.
Ultimately, it depends on what, you, Macedonians want for yourselves, for your children, grandchildren, and generations of Macedonians yet to be born.
