36% is not a mandate
Some quick thoughts after the referendum
●The boycott campaign succeeded spectacularly. The majority of Macedonians said “no change” to our name, identity, dignity, Constitution, culture, heritage, history and so much more by staying home. The people won. Only about 36 percent of the entire registered voters voted and of that, about 90% voted in favor. About 600,000 people voted in favor of the agreement which, interestingly, is about 50,000 less than the total that voted for SDSM and the Albanian parties in 2016. That is not a mandate, nor a success. Far from it. In addition, Zaev’s Albanian partners in government claimed that they contributed about 250,000 votes, thus increasing pressure on him to deliver to them.
●On August 31 of this year, Zoran Zaev said: “As the Prime Minister I have a mandate to December 2020. If the referendum fails, we probably end with our politics here.”
●But now he has changed his mind and moved the goalposts. We always knew that Zaev would work to push the Prespa agreement through parliament no matter what the outcome of the referendum. He said, as recently as last week that “those who don’t vote don’t even count.” Obviously, he considers himself prime minister only of those who agree with him.
●To put all of this in perspective, almost 1.1 million Macedonians voted for an independent Republic of Macedonia in 1991 out of about 1.5 million total voters, with a turnout of almost 76%. That was a mandate.
●Privately, the internationals are furious with Zaev and his government. Zaev assured them that this agreement would receive wide support. It did not. They will drop him as soon as is convenient to them. But drop him they will.
●The Prime Minister and his government will attempt to pressure VMRO-DPMNE members to vote for the agreement. The International Community (primarily the US, EU, and NATO representatives) will pressure them as well. However, with such a low turnout, the VMRO-DPMNE members will see no mandate to vote for it. If it fails in parliament, and most Macedonians hope it does fail, then the prime minister has called for early elections.
●Of course we don’t know the extent of fraud and the stuffing of ballot boxes in this referendum though we know it did happen. And we don’t know the number of polling stations that must be re-run due to complaints. It won’t have any major effect on the outcome but it could delay an official certification. Not that Zaev is waiting for any certification, official or otherwise.
●The Western leaders who poured into Macedonia over the past month would do themselves a favor by being quiet now, looking into the mirror, and understanding that their heavy-handed tactics failed to sway a people who simply want to be called “Macedonians” and the “Republic of Macedonia” which is what the majority of the planet now calls them.
●Zaev’s SDSM and Ahmeti’s DUI campaigned poorly — they were preaching to the choir and failed to convince the majority that changing the country’s name, identity, Constitution and so much more would be a good thing. They should re-examine their political advisors, especially the foreign ones they hired.
●State Electoral Commission came to the conclusion that one of the legal conditions of the referendum (the turnout) was not met and therefore the referendum question was not accepted by the voters.
●We don’t know, entirely, the Greek reaction or the fallout in Greece from this referendum. The Defense Minister, Panos Kammenos, leader of the Independent Greeks and junior member in the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, said the Prespa agreement is now dead. Last month he said he would pull his party from the governing coalition if it comes to a vote in parliament which could trigger new, and early, elections.
●In President Trump’s speech to the UN last month, he said “That is why America will always choose independence and cooperation over global governance, control, and domination. I honor the right of every nation in this room to pursue its own customs, beliefs, and traditions. The United States will not tell you how to live or work or worship. We only ask that you honor our sovereignty in return,” and “America is governed by Americans…We reject the ideology of globalism, and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism…That is why America will always choose independence and cooperation over global governance, control, and domination.” Macedonians only wish that his State Department would honor the Macedonian’s desire to rule themselves.
●One last point: there are always alternatives. But they take knowledge, wisdom, and very hard work. The easy thing would be to vote for the agreement and let Greece have its way with Macedonia (and then Bulgaria and Albania) but with no absolute guarantee that Macedonia will ever be a part of NATO or the EU. The more difficult path is to continue talking while building a strong, stable, secure, and prosperous Macedonia while working toward NATO and EU membership. It can be done, but it takes leadership. Not caving in.
There’s still a lot of work ahead. Stay strong, Macedonia.
